John Jaeckel: Glass Half What?

First
and happy new year JJ.....keep up the great blogs!

First
and happy new year JJ.....keep up the great blogs!
- Hawkster

Thx Hawkster

So if we take the bottom 5 teams from each league and study their 1LWs ...who is he best fit ?


Of course I love pending UFA Boedker but the Coyotes could probably make the playoffs in the Pacific even though they should go full fledge tank mode for A SHOT at Matthews.

Dunno, a lot could evolve by 3/1.

Definitely need help on the flank for 81 and 19. Going to need more balanced scoring. Have to expect, based on recent history, that 88 will cool off at some-point or the possibility that when the race gets tight teams could employ and Victor Headman strategy (finals '15) to try to shut Kane down.

As this topic is compatable, I'll repost my comment from the last blog:

I like to look at a couple of other season-long team stats that others don't think are important - not sure why, but maybe it's me.

Hawks are 22-13-4=48 points, on pace for 101 points, which should be good enough to get into the tournament - looks like a nice record.

But - their overall record is a bit less bright: 22 wins 17 losses. That's ok, because in the West, only Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota and LA join Chicago in being over .500.

But - that record is enhanced by being 8-4 in overtime/shootout situation: the Hawks are only 14-13 in games decided in regulation - in the "old" NHL, their record would be 14-13-12. 31% of their games have gone to extra time. That's basically a .500 team - even with the league.

Many have said that the Hawks are not as good as their record - only 4 teams in the league - 3 in the West - have more points - to me, their extra-time record is why.

And, to me, their regulation record is important because unlike the regular season, OT play in the tournament is mostly 5X5, not the 3X3 that Toews and Kane excel at.

I keep seeing a .500 team - win one or two, lose a couple, can't put teams away, struggles 5X5 - that will almost surely play post-season, and will have to rely on their tournament experience and exceptional goaltending to get further than one round.

As this topic is compatable, I'll repost my comment from the last blog:

I like to look at a couple of other season-long team stats that others don't think are important - not sure why, but maybe it's me.

Hawks are 22-13-4=48 points, on pace for 101 points, which should be good enough to get into the tournament - looks like a nice record.

But - their overall record is a bit less bright: 22 wins 17 losses. That's ok, because in the West, only Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota and LA join Chicago in being over .500.

But - that record is enhanced by being 8-4 in overtime/shootout situation: the Hawks are only 14-13 in games decided in regulation - in the "old" NHL, their record would be 14-13-12. 31% of their games have gone to extra time. That's basically a .500 team - even with the league.

Many have said that the Hawks are not as good as their record - only 4 teams in the league - 3 in the West - have more points - to me, their extra-time record is why.

And, to me, their regulation record is important because unlike the regular season, OT play in the tournament is mostly 5X5, not the 3X3 that Toews and Kane excel at.

I keep seeing a .500 team - win one or two, lose a couple, can't put teams away, struggles 5X5 - that will almost surely play post-season, and will have to rely on their tournament experience and exceptional goaltending to get further than one round.
- StLBravesFan

Well said, Sage. We are seeing the same thing.

I think if you take it a step further, like I tried to in the blog, the scoring imbalance definitely suggests Toews line is underproducing offensively, but also they may be negatively impacting (compared to years' past) defensive numbers because of what they aren't doing as well this year—maintaining offensive zone time, keeping opponents' more on their heels.

Also, the lower lines CLEARLY are better with Shaw and TT than without. So the problem becomes worse when you promote those guys to play out of position on the top line, because they are then back-filled with Bickell, Mashinter, Kero and Baun on the lower lines.

Domino effect.

The Last 2 years the Hawks have 46 points the last half of the year. If They split the next 2 games and have 50 at the half way point their second half will need to be better then the recent history of 46 leaving them at 96.

Just saying.

And file this one under "unconnected dots that can be connected":

Tampa Bay has a scout basically camped out in Rockford of late. Beyond that I have not heard anything specifically about a deal.

Jonathan Drouin is a natural left wing (with tons of talent) who would probably thrive playing with 19 and 81, and is struggling a bit in Tampa.

I don't know if TB would entertain dealing Drouin and the price would likely be fairly high, but there may be some fire to this smoke.

The Last 2 years the Hawks have 46 points the last half of the year. If They split the next 2 games and have 50 at the half way point their second half will need to be better then the recent history of 46 leaving them at 96.

Just saying.
- Colbyboy

That could be out of the playoffs, very possibly.

I think you nailed it. I also think it's hard to play playoff type hockey every night with other teams using you as a yardstick. I say that because it seems to me 2 and 7 have been victimized as much as anyone else on D. They look tired sometimes or not 100% of themselves. I like our d personnel. Keeping Oduya would've been nice...

To your point as well, 16 hadn't found his game this year either. His line would spend quality zone time last year.

Excellent blog.

GO HOCKS!

And file this one under "unconnected dots that can be connected":

Tampa Bay has a scout basically camped out in Rockford of late. Beyond that I have not heard anything specifically about a deal.

Jonathan Drouin is a natural left wing (with tons of talent) who would probably thrive playing with 19 and 81, and is struggling a bit in Tampa.

I don't know if TB would entertain dealing Drouin and the price would likely be fairly high, but there may be some fire to this smoke.
- John Jaeckel

They just sent him to the minors.

He's not as big as i had thought. Kanes size.

One positive as opposed to last and previous years is the play of the Rockford team. This success has already resulted in better quality call-ups and potential trade chips. It does not surprise me that NHL teams are scouting our minor league club.

Many have said that the Hawks are not as good as their record - only 4 teams in the league - 3 in the West - have more points - to me, their extra-time record is why

No disagreement with the OT record making the Hawks better than a 500 team. But this is the reality of the new NHL. Parity,close games and OT is here to stay.

After watching what different teams Montreal with Gallagher and Boston without Marchand were yesterday can't help but think....

the addition of a First Line LW will decide contender or pretender.

marginally bigger than Kane, and stronger.

And file this one under "unconnected dots that can be connected":

Tampa Bay has a scout basically camped out in Rockford of late. Beyond that I have not heard anything specifically about a deal.

Jonathan Drouin is a natural left wing (with tons of talent) who would probably thrive playing with 19 and 81, and is struggling a bit in Tampa.

I don't know if TB would entertain dealing Drouin and the price would likely be fairly high, but there may be some fire to this smoke.
- John Jaeckel

Never thought of Drouin. Not sure who his issue is with in Tampa, Cooper or Yzerman, but he has high end skill with speed. Not sure if he is big enough, but I'd think he might prefer a guy who has a little french in him like Q to relate to.

Koekkoek would be a reclamation project i would be interested in from the Bolts too. I remember Drouin lit up the CHL and would be a young and fast project, not established in the mold of Boedker or Rask.

marginally bigger than Kane, and stronger.
- John Jaeckel

IIRC, Roy coached Drouin in juniors but the avs drafted MacKinnon. Now Drouin has an issue with management in Tampa. If he's a high talent head case maybe he's not worth the price they would have to pay.

Been watching the WJC. Is anyone else really excited about Forsling? Kid looks like a player.

IIRC, Roy coached Drouin in juniors but the avs drafted MacKinnon. Now Drouin has an issue with management in Tampa. If he's a high talent head case maybe he's not worth the price they would have to pay.
- 6628

This is certainly possible. And may be why I haven't heard his name specifically mentioned in what I've heard about trade targets, in spite of his skill and stick fitting what they need.

Been watching the WJC. Is anyone else really excited about Forsling? Kid looks like a player.
- acmidd28

I think it was Wiz who said this looked like a possibly nice deal for the Hawks based on the scouting for Forsling when the Hawks dealt Clendening for him. Small, but fast and aware with a huge shot.

That could be out of the playoffs, very possibly.
- John Jaeckel

JJ, can the Hawks win a cup this season with TVR in the top 4? Hoping Stan stretches his normal meh of a deadline approach and makes a splash by adding a top 4 d-man and top 6 winger. Go for it Stan!

I think it was Wiz who said this looked like a possibly nice deal for the Hawks based on the scouting for Forsling when the Hawks dealt Clendening for him. Small, but fast and aware with a huge shot.
- John Jaeckel

Great hockey sense, very slick. Possible future PP weapon. Looks like a young Phil Housley.

Been watching the WJC. Is anyone else really excited about Forsling? Kid looks like a player.
- acmidd28

He'll need to learn the D side better, but certainly looks like a future PP Qback if nothing else.

Thought watching Finland play that Joni Tuulola hasn't looked bad either, he is still real young.